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decades of research and technology have

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allowed for better forecasting of the

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when where and how intense a hurricane

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will be but what if we could predict a

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disease outbreak in the wake of a storm

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that's the question some researchers

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asked about cholera in haiti in the

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aftermath of hurricane matthew

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cholera is a waterborne infectious

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disease that occurs when a person

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ingests food or water contaminated with

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the vibrio bacterium

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cholera causes severe diarrhea nausea

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vomiting and dehydration and can lead to

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death if untreated

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researchers estimate that hundreds of

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thousands of cases are reported each

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year worldwide

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the bacterium is

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found in world oceans

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globally

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especially in the temperate regions and

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in the tropics

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so in the countries

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less developed

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with infrastructure that is not the

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equivalent let's say

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europe or the united states or canada

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then

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the population that has to rely on

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river water pond water

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is at risk for cholera

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in addition to water insecurity high

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seasonal temperatures followed by

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extreme rainfall

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concentrated populations

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and a natural disaster are all

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conditions conducive to a cholera

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epidemic

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this was the case for haiti in 2010 the

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data that we were able to to pull

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together showed that

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in 2010 it was the hottest

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summer in 50 years and then as if that

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weren't enough

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there was a hurricane that skirted the

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island but it dumped the heaviest

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rainfall

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in 50 years we tried to make an

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algorithm in a cohesive form to

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determine the risk and and that

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basically provided us with the first

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clues on the risk of outbreak of cholera

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then we use the same algorithm

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with improved satellite data sets from

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global precipitation measurement mission

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after hurricane matthew struck that

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region again

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[Music]

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and we were able to in real time predict

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the risk of cholera infection in human

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population at least four weeks in

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advance

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we did the same thing for yemen we knew

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that there is a mass movement of human

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population due to civil unrest in that

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part of the world and then we had very

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heavy precipitation and then we

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immediately started monitoring

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conditions and that basically converged

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to give us a risk on where and when this

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this disease will occur in human

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population

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i think we can predict and prevent

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and i'd like to see that happen very

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quickly in the next three to five years

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and i'd like to see the satellite system

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to be part of the regular public health

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tools so that we can do

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prediction